Premier League predictions
Future goals
| Team | GW9 | GW10 | GW11 | GW12 | GW13 | GW14 | GW15 | GW16 | GW17 | GW18 |
|---|
| Arsenal | 1.84 | 1.93 | 1.87 | 2.10 | 1.48 | 1.91 | 1.56 | 1.95 | 1.42 | 1.87 |
| Aston Villa | 1.15 | 0.92 | 1.29 | 0.97 | 1.44 | 1.13 | 0.78 | 1.32 | 1.49 | 1.09 |
| Bournemouth | 1.81 | 1.14 | 1.39 | 1.94 | 1.67 | 1.54 | 1.61 | 1.48 | 2.09 | 1.39 |
| Brentford | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.27 | 1.34 | 2.05 | 0.76 | 1.50 | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.53 |
| Brighton | 1.49 | 1.44 | 1.36 | 1.71 | 1.50 | 1.71 | 1.96 | 1.12 | 2.05 | 0.79 |
| Burnley | 0.79 | 0.52 | 0.88 | 0.89 | 0.77 | 0.91 | 0.59 | 0.88 | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| Chelsea | 2.26 | 1.71 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.05 | 1.30 | 1.43 | 1.71 | 1.19 | 1.88 |
| Crystal Palace | 0.93 | 2.01 | 1.97 | 1.70 | 2.14 | 2.04 | 1.55 | 1.65 | 1.39 | 2.22 |
| Everton | 1.53 | 1.36 | 1.29 | 1.21 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.48 | 1.08 | 0.77 | 1.40 |
| Fulham | 0.85 | 1.38 | 1.00 | 1.61 | 1.22 | 1.10 | 1.30 | 1.37 | 1.44 | 1.27 |
| Leeds United | 1.66 | 1.16 | 1.27 | 1.44 | 0.97 | 1.37 | 1.15 | 1.19 | 1.39 | 1.42 |
| Liverpool | 1.91 | 2.32 | 1.57 | 2.49 | 2.19 | 2.78 | 1.60 | 2.28 | 2.11 | 2.38 |
| Manchester City | 1.67 | 1.87 | 1.62 | 1.28 | 1.71 | 1.56 | 2.43 | 1.61 | 2.33 | 1.79 |
| Manchester Utd | 1.74 | 1.56 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.41 | 2.04 | 1.50 | 1.64 | 1.46 | 1.36 |
| Newcastle Utd | 1.72 | 1.73 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.37 | 2.03 | 2.27 | 1.81 | 1.74 | 1.60 |
| Nott'ham Forest | 1.00 | 1.40 | 1.11 | 0.87 | 1.30 | 1.11 | 0.99 | 1.46 | 1.02 | 1.08 |
| Sunderland | 0.71 | 0.83 | 0.51 | 0.70 | 0.84 | 0.60 | 0.61 | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| Tottenham | 1.12 | 1.42 | 1.59 | 0.69 | 1.40 | 0.95 | 1.50 | 1.32 | 1.20 | 1.19 |
| West Ham | 0.87 | 0.96 | 1.55 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.01 | 1.25 | 0.85 | 1.17 |
| Wolves | 1.49 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 1.16 | 0.99 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 0.55 | 1.21 | 0.79 |
Clean sheet probabilities
| Team | GW9 | GW10 | GW11 | GW12 | GW13 | GW14 | GW15 | GW16 | GW17 | GW18 |
|---|
| Arsenal | 40% | 59% | 60% | 50% | 35% | 47% | 46% | 57% | 46% | 46% |
| Aston Villa | 19% | 10% | 25% | 24% | 37% | 18% | 21% | 29% | 23% | 15% |
| Bournemouth | 37% | 15% | 27% | 39% | 43% | 35% | 24% | 19% | 49% | 22% |
| Brentford | 15% | 13% | 22% | 18% | 46% | 15% | 22% | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Brighton | 17% | 31% | 14% | 26% | 27% | 32% | 36% | 10% | 48% | 15% |
| Burnley | 23% | 14% | 21% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 10% | 25% | 12% | 25% |
| Chelsea | 49% | 24% | 39% | 41% | 23% | 25% | 20% | 34% | 18% | 34% |
| Crystal Palace | 16% | 27% | 26% | 31% | 24% | 40% | 27% | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Everton | 33% | 44% | 37% | 20% | 25% | 22% | 37% | 18% | 24% | 43% |
| Fulham | 18% | 40% | 27% | 50% | 25% | 21% | 21% | 42% | 36% | 31% |
| Leeds United | 42% | 24% | 33% | 38% | 18% | 27% | 20% | 25% | 25% | 46% |
| Liverpool | 27% | 40% | 20% | 42% | 37% | 55% | 32% | 33% | 30% | 45% |
| Manchester City | 32% | 32% | 21% | 22% | 38% | 33% | 54% | 19% | 43% | 34% |
| Manchester Utd | 22% | 25% | 20% | 30% | 12% | 33% | 28% | 23% | 23% | 20% |
| Newcastle Utd | 43% | 38% | 28% | 28% | 35% | 39% | 55% | 50% | 30% | 26% |
| Nott'ham Forest | 16% | 21% | 28% | 8% | 22% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 24% | 17% |
| Sunderland | 10% | 26% | 15% | 20% | 19% | 6% | 9% | 16% | 13% | 24% |
| Tottenham | 22% | 18% | 20% | 12% | 29% | 13% | 22% | 23% | 12% | 11% |
| West Ham | 19% | 18% | 41% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 27% | 10% | 28% |
| Wolves | 45% | 25% | 15% | 18% | 24% | 33% | 22% | 14% | 25% | 9% |
Team strength
| Team | Attack | Defence | Goal difference |
|---|
| Liverpool | 1.65 | 0.93 | 0.72 |
| Arsenal | 1.35 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| Manchester City | 1.44 | 0.95 | 0.49 |
| Newcastle Utd | 1.30 | 0.89 | 0.41 |
| Crystal Palace | 1.43 | 1.12 | 0.31 |
| Chelsea | 1.34 | 1.10 | 0.24 |
| Bournemouth | 1.20 | 1.07 | 0.13 |
| Brighton | 1.21 | 1.14 | 0.07 |
| Leeds United | 1.02 | 0.97 | 0.05 |
| Manchester Utd | 1.26 | 1.23 | 0.03 |
| Brentford | 1.18 | 1.16 | 0.02 |
| Everton | 0.98 | 1.05 | -0.07 |
| Fulham | 0.95 | 1.08 | -0.13 |
| Aston Villa | 0.99 | 1.16 | -0.16 |
| Tottenham | 1.06 | 1.28 | -0.22 |
| Nott'ham Forest | 0.94 | 1.24 | -0.30 |
| Wolves | 0.85 | 1.19 | -0.33 |
| West Ham | 0.89 | 1.33 | -0.44 |
| Sunderland | 0.65 | 1.39 | -0.74 |
| Burnley | 0.66 | 1.43 | -0.77 |
Predicted table
| # | Team | xGD | xP |
|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 40.7 | 79.7 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 33.0 | 74.7 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 29.6 | 69.4 |
| 4 | Newcastle Utd | 17.5 | 61.9 |
| 5 | Crystal Palace | 15.3 | 61.6 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 16.6 | 61.6 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 9.4 | 60.6 |
| 8 | Brighton | 4.6 | 55.9 |
| 9 | Manchester Utd | 1.0 | 55.9 |
| 10 | Brentford | -1.8 | 51.1 |
| 11 | Everton | -2.0 | 50.8 |
| 12 | Leeds United | -4.4 | 50.4 |
| 13 | Tottenham | -2.8 | 49.5 |
| 14 | Aston Villa | -7.9 | 48.3 |
| 15 | Fulham | -7.9 | 46.8 |
| 16 | Nott'ham Forest | -22.4 | 38.3 |
| 17 | Sunderland | -28.1 | 35.5 |
| 18 | Wolves | -24.1 | 34.7 |
| 19 | West Ham | -29.8 | 34.3 |
| 20 | Burnley | -36.4 | 29.1 |
Fair table
The table is a summary of win/draw/loss probabilities given the per shot xG of past games.
| # | Team | MP | GD | xGD | Pts | xPts |
|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 12 | 9.10 | 19 | 16.98 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 4 | 6.30 | 13 | 15.29 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 8 | 11 | 6.30 | 16 | 15.18 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 3 | 4.30 | 15 | 13.82 |
| 5 | Newcastle Utd | 8 | 0 | 4.10 | 9 | 13.44 |
| 6 | Manchester Utd | 8 | -1 | 2.40 | 13 | 13.00 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 8 | -6 | 1.60 | 8 | 12.75 |
| 8 | Brighton | 8 | 1 | 1.60 | 12 | 12.14 |
| 9 | Bournemouth | 8 | 3 | -0.50 | 15 | 11.69 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 8 | 7 | 0.80 | 14 | 11.33 |
| 11 | Brentford | 8 | -1 | 0.60 | 10 | 11.22 |
| 12 | Everton | 8 | 0 | -1.00 | 11 | 10.20 |
| 13 | Tottenham | 8 | 7 | -0.80 | 14 | 9.87 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 8 | 3 | -2.30 | 14 | 9.09 |
| 15 | Wolves | 8 | -11 | -2.90 | 2 | 8.68 |
| 16 | Fulham | 8 | -4 | -3.10 | 8 | 8.48 |
| 17 | Nott'ham Forest | 8 | -10 | -5.40 | 5 | 8.01 |
| 18 | Aston Villa | 8 | 0 | -4.20 | 12 | 7.42 |
| 19 | West Ham | 8 | -12 | -6.40 | 4 | 7.08 |
| 20 | Burnley | 8 | -6 | -10.50 | 7 | 4.71 |