Premier League predictions

Future goals

Team	GW17	GW18	GW19	GW20	GW21	GW22	GW23	GW24	GW25	GW26
Arsenal	1.35	1.80	1.84	1.47	1.56	1.46	1.88	1.42	1.98	1.45
Aston Villa	1.50	1.10	0.65	1.45	1.06	1.33	1.06	1.43	1.17	1.44
Bournemouth	2.24	1.35	1.28	0.94	1.87	1.35	1.45	1.51	1.71	1.25
Brentford	1.48	1.67	1.84	1.23	1.81	1.25	1.66	1.35	1.21	0.92
Brighton	1.90	0.78	1.62	2.30	1.23	1.75	1.40	1.60	1.58	1.42
Burnley	0.84	0.95	0.94	0.83	1.07	0.71	1.15	0.91	1.20	0.76
Chelsea	1.38	1.91	1.90	1.33	1.52	1.87	1.38	2.19	1.69	1.83
Crystal Palace	1.42	2.02	1.82	1.33	1.84	1.59	1.71	1.46	1.45	2.41
Everton	0.73	1.39	1.05	1.29	1.46	1.07	1.27	1.04	1.06	1.32
Fulham	1.30	1.21	0.95	1.12	1.22	1.02	1.29	1.09	1.20	0.92
Leeds United	1.39	1.35	1.06	1.59	1.12	1.54	1.14	0.85	1.53	1.16
Liverpool	1.90	2.38	2.07	1.72	0.95	2.83	1.73	1.94	1.87	1.87
Manchester City	2.44	1.70	1.85	1.98	2.09	1.76	2.35	1.88	1.45	2.11
Manchester Utd	1.54	1.71	2.10	1.47	2.01	1.65	0.84	1.89	2.09	1.76
Newcastle Utd	1.61	1.43	1.83	1.56	1.66	1.54	1.74	1.19	1.70	1.53
Nott'ham Forest	1.10	1.20	1.26	1.11	1.27	0.76	1.09	1.24	1.06	1.52
Sunderland	0.72	0.88	0.79	0.81	0.72	0.82	0.84	1.20	0.40	0.78
Tottenham	1.15	0.98	1.07	1.46	1.09	1.55	1.43	1.18	1.12	1.22
West Ham	0.91	1.29	1.28	1.16	1.29	1.15	1.41	0.98	1.38	1.34
Wolves	1.10	0.77	0.92	1.29	0.82	1.01	0.78	1.12	1.04	0.89

Clean sheet probabilities

Team	GW17	GW18	GW19	GW20	GW21	GW22	GW23	GW24	GW25	GW26
Arsenal	48%	46%	52%	39%	39%	47%	43%	43%	67%	40%
Aston Villa	21%	15%	16%	33%	16%	34%	18%	26%	18%	24%
Bournemouth	43%	19%	15%	23%	34%	17%	18%	33%	31%	27%
Brentford	33%	26%	34%	27%	49%	15%	34%	24%	18%	24%
Brighton	49%	16%	28%	44%	12%	26%	27%	35%	23%	24%
Burnley	11%	25%	16%	10%	13%	6%	24%	30%	25%	9%
Chelsea	20%	33%	28%	14%	29%	29%	18%	38%	35%	31%
Crystal Palace	25%	38%	39%	21%	35%	44%	25%	29%	21%	47%
Everton	26%	39%	28%	29%	44%	26%	32%	20%	30%	29%
Fulham	33%	27%	16%	18%	22%	21%	25%	15%	35%	12%
Leeds United	24%	42%	13%	23%	19%	36%	28%	24%	35%	16%
Liverpool	32%	46%	35%	33%	21%	49%	23%	31%	23%	46%
Manchester City	40%	30%	45%	26%	29%	19%	46%	31%	15%	40%
Manchester Utd	22%	24%	40%	20%	34%	17%	15%	34%	33%	26%
Newcastle Utd	25%	18%	39%	27%	33%	37%	35%	14%	30%	30%
Nott'ham Forest	27%	18%	35%	23%	27%	23%	19%	23%	22%	41%
Sunderland	15%	26%	16%	23%	16%	20%	24%	40%	14%	15%
Tottenham	15%	13%	16%	45%	15%	32%	32%	15%	12%	22%
West Ham	9%	30%	20%	28%	28%	21%	43%	11%	30%	17%
Wolves	23%	9%	12%	31%	23%	21%	10%	22%	18%	22%

Team strength

Team	Attack	Defence	Goal difference
Arsenal	1.30	0.62	0.68
Liverpool	1.53	0.96	0.56
Manchester City	1.51	0.99	0.52
Chelsea	1.35	1.06	0.29
Crystal Palace	1.30	1.02	0.28
Newcastle Utd	1.23	1.02	0.21
Manchester Utd	1.35	1.16	0.19
Brighton	1.24	1.12	0.13
Bournemouth	1.21	1.13	0.08
Brentford	1.18	1.11	0.07
Leeds United	1.10	1.09	0.01
Everton	0.94	1.04	-0.10
Aston Villa	1.04	1.14	-0.10
Nott'ham Forest	0.98	1.13	-0.15
Fulham	0.93	1.13	-0.20
Tottenham	0.96	1.25	-0.29
West Ham	0.92	1.30	-0.38
Wolves	0.79	1.25	-0.46
Sunderland	0.65	1.23	-0.58
Burnley	0.74	1.49	-0.75

Predicted table

#	Team	xGD	xP
1	Arsenal	39.3	79.5
2	Manchester City	37.2	74.0
3	Liverpool	19.5	67.3
4	Chelsea	19.8	63.4
5	Crystal Palace	12.9	61.5
6	Aston Villa	4.6	61.2
7	Manchester Utd	9.3	59.9
8	Brighton	6.5	56.3
9	Newcastle Utd	6.1	55.8
10	Bournemouth	-0.7	52.8
11	Everton	-3.8	52.2
12	Brentford	-0.6	52.1
13	Tottenham	-4.7	46.9
14	Fulham	-8.7	46.6
15	Leeds United	-9.7	46.6
16	Nott'ham Forest	-12.6	45.2
17	Sunderland	-14.3	44.9
18	West Ham	-23.9	36.6
19	Burnley	-36.6	27.2
20	Wolves	-39.7	23.4

Fair table

The table is a summary of win/draw/loss probabilities given the per shot xG of past games.

#	Team	MP	GD	xGD	Pts	xPts
1	Arsenal	16	20	17.00	36	34.00
2	Manchester City	16	22	12.80	34	30.42
3	Manchester Utd	16	4	8.60	26	27.40
4	Crystal Palace	16	5	7.80	26	27.06
5	Liverpool	16	2	6.20	26	26.75
6	Chelsea	16	12	7.50	28	25.08
7	Brighton	16	2	4.10	23	24.50
8	Newcastle Utd	16	1	3.80	22	24.02
9	Leeds United	16	-10	-0.90	16	23.31
10	Brentford	16	-3	1.30	20	22.57
11	Bournemouth	16	-3	-0.30	21	22.49
12	Everton	16	-1	-2.30	24	20.54
13	Nott'ham Forest	16	-8	-3.20	18	20.01
14	Tottenham	16	4	-6.70	22	18.08
15	Fulham	16	-3	-5.00	20	18.01
16	Aston Villa	16	8	-4.70	33	17.69
17	West Ham	16	-13	-9.60	13	17.13
18	Sunderland	16	2	-7.90	26	16.15
19	Wolves	16	-26	-10.20	2	15.90
20	Burnley	16	-15	-18.30	10	10.77