Premier League predictions

Future goals

Team	GW32	GW33	GW34	GW35	GW36	GW37	GW38
Arsenal	1.96	1.26	1.80	1.83	1.68	2.44	1.47
Aston Villa	1.26	1.55	1.22	1.65	1.62	1.29	1.02
Bournemouth	0.85	1.46		1.76	1.48	1.51	1.51
Bournemouth	0.85	1.72		1.76	1.48	1.51	1.51
Brentford	1.71	1.79	1.39	2.00	1.23	1.75	1.28
Brighton	1.78	1.50		1.33	1.78	1.28	1.55
Brighton	1.78	1.57		1.33	1.78	1.28	1.55
Burnley	0.97	0.84		0.78	0.99	0.49	1.09
Burnley	0.97	0.84		0.78	0.99	0.49	1.09
Chelsea	1.79	1.96		2.11	1.48	2.30	1.78
Chelsea	1.79	1.61		2.11	1.48	2.30	1.78
Crystal Palace	1.61	1.91	1.22	1.52	1.71	1.40	1.01
Everton	1.04	1.14	1.20	1.09	1.05	1.37	1.20
Fulham	1.03	1.19	1.42	0.70	1.56	1.29	1.42
Leeds United	1.21	1.79		2.19	1.50	1.56	1.51
Leeds United	1.21	1.46		2.19	1.50	1.56	1.51
Liverpool	1.96	1.58	1.87	1.49	1.83	1.55	1.92
Manchester City	1.56	1.20		1.68	2.04	1.82	2.01
Manchester City	1.56	2.23		1.68	2.04	1.82	2.01
Manchester Utd	1.71	1.38	1.76	1.53	1.52	1.79	1.37
Newcastle United	1.44	1.92	0.86	1.68	1.48	1.98	1.45
Nottingham Forest	1.29	1.72	1.11	1.01	1.27	1.01	1.40
Sunderland	1.22	0.88	1.10	0.97	1.03	0.89	1.04
Tottenham Hotspur	1.13	1.23	1.16	1.05	1.23	1.02	1.30
West Ham United	1.45	1.11	1.39	1.14	0.82	1.12	1.31
Wolves	1.02	0.84	1.20	1.13	0.84	1.08	1.18

Clean sheet probabilities

Team	GW32	GW33	GW34	GW35	GW36	GW37	GW38
Arsenal	42%	30%	42%	49%	44%	61%	36%
Aston Villa	27%	41%	24%	34%	37%	21%	13%
Bournemouth	14%	14%		21%	20%	16%	24%
Bournemouth	14%	23%		21%	20%	16%	24%
Brentford	35%	30%	17%	32%	13%	24%	14%
Brighton	38%	29%		18%	43%	21%	25%
Brighton	38%	19%		18%	43%	21%	25%
Burnley	16%	17%		11%	19%	8%	30%
Burnley	16%	10%		11%	19%	8%	30%
Chelsea	20%	25%		36%	15%	36%	35%
Chelsea	20%	20%		36%	15%	36%	35%
Crystal Palace	23%	32%	15%	17%	35%	17%	23%
Everton	18%	20%	25%	18%	18%	40%	27%
Fulham	14%	16%	29%	16%	22%	33%	23%
Leeds United	18%	43%		45%	29%	27%	26%
Leeds United	18%	17%		45%	29%	27%	26%
Liverpool	35%	31%	29%	21%	22%	27%	27%
Manchester City	16%	28%		33%	29%	22%	36%
Manchester City	16%	43%		33%	29%	22%	36%
Manchester Utd	29%	14%	24%	22%	35%	36%	21%
Newcastle United	19%	23%	16%	26%	28%	32%	24%
Nottingham Forest	28%	43%	33%	12%	22%	16%	22%
Sunderland	32%	21%	32%	32%	21%	25%	16%
Tottenham Hotspur	29%	22%	30%	19%	22%	10%	30%
West Ham United	35%	14%	30%	13%	18%	13%	22%
Wolves	23%	16%	31%	37%	16%	27%	33%

Team strength

Team	Attack	Defence	Goal difference
Arsenal	1.32	0.67	0.65
Manchester City	1.47	0.95	0.52
Chelsea	1.49	1.09	0.40
Liverpool	1.38	0.99	0.39
Manchester Utd	1.27	1.08	0.19
Newcastle United	1.27	1.12	0.15
Brentford	1.29	1.14	0.15
Crystal Palace	1.23	1.11	0.12
Leeds United	1.18	1.08	0.10
Brighton	1.18	1.08	0.10
Bournemouth	1.30	1.23	0.07
Aston Villa	1.07	1.12	-0.05
Fulham	1.04	1.14	-0.10
Everton	0.94	1.14	-0.20
Nottingham Forest	0.93	1.16	-0.23
West Ham United	1.00	1.27	-0.28
Tottenham Hotspur	0.94	1.27	-0.33
Sunderland	0.78	1.19	-0.41
Wolves	0.78	1.24	-0.46
Burnley	0.72	1.52	-0.79

Predicted table

#	Team	xGD	xPts
1	Arsenal	43.42	81.81
2	Manchester City	39.84	76.74
3	Manchester Utd	12.92	63.93
4	Aston Villa	5.45	63.64
5	Liverpool	12.30	61.78
6	Chelsea	15.39	58.45
7	Brentford	4.00	55.35
8	Brighton	6.72	54.77
9	Everton	0.50	54.24
10	Bournemouth	-1.23	53.16
11	Sunderland	-5.55	52.40
12	Fulham	-4.27	51.44
13	Crystal Palace	-2.05	51.02
14	Newcastle United	-1.05	50.88
15	Leeds United	-7.17	46.14
16	Nottingham Forest	-13.31	40.46
17	West Ham United	-20.40	38.09
18	Tottenham Hotspur	-13.36	36.76
19	Burnley	-36.35	24.42
20	Wolves	-35.80	24.00

Fair table

The table is a summary of win/draw/loss probabilities given the per shot xG of past games.

#	Team	MP	GD	xGD	Pts	xPts
1	Arsenal	32	38	31.32	70	65.58
2	Manchester City	31	35	22.08	64	58.16
3	Chelsea	32	12	17.29	48	53.79
4	Liverpool	32	10	13.70	52	53.31
5	Manchester Utd	32	12	13.74	55	52.01
6	Brentford	32	4	8.33	47	49.26
7	Brighton	32	6	5.60	46	48.13
8	Newcastle United	32	-2	5.62	42	47.79
9	Crystal Palace	31	-1	7.03	42	47.57
10	Bournemouth	32	-1	2.41	45	47.17
11	Leeds United	32	-10	1.73	36	46.70
12	Fulham	32	-3	-4.42	44	40.20
13	Aston Villa	32	5	-5.82	55	39.89
14	Everton	32	2	-9.35	47	37.57
15	West Ham United	32	-17	-11.63	32	37.11
16	Nottingham Forest	32	-12	-11.11	33	36.15
17	Tottenham Hotspur	32	-11	-15.02	30	34.66
18	Sunderland	32	-3	-13.55	46	34.57
19	Wolves	32	-34	-21.29	17	31.32
20	Burnley	32	-30	-36.65	20	21.34