Premier League predictions

Future goals

Team	GW22	GW23	GW24	GW25	GW26	GW27	GW28	GW29	GW30	GW31
Arsenal	1.52	1.85	1.52	2.12	1.58	1.53	1.84	1.62	1.85	1.56
Aston Villa	1.56	1.14	1.64	1.34	1.67	1.57	1.31	1.55	1.27	1.91
Bournemouth	1.51	1.43	1.46	1.81	1.41	1.73	1.99	1.83	1.85	1.74
Brentford	1.43	1.79	1.50	1.29	1.08	1.90	1.89	1.52	1.83	1.45
Brighton	1.77	1.36	1.68	1.69	1.43	1.44	1.70	1.03	1.56	1.38
Burnley	0.66	1.00	0.92	1.21	0.81	0.80	1.04	0.80	1.04	0.80
Chelsea	2.02	1.58	2.35	1.62	1.94	2.52	0.96	1.63	1.73	1.56
Crystal Palace	1.62	1.73	1.43	1.52	2.29	1.80	1.42	1.44	1.76	1.26
Everton	1.03	1.23	1.06	0.98	1.28	1.22	0.89	1.59	0.60	1.21
Fulham	1.07	1.40	1.07	1.31	0.95	1.22	1.33	1.60	1.08	1.72
Leeds United	1.59	1.30	0.97	1.61	1.29	1.35	1.42	1.83	1.31	1.68
Liverpool	2.56	1.67	1.75	1.74	1.82	1.60	2.38	1.64	1.98	1.70
Manchester City	1.65	2.10	1.67	1.36	2.02	1.82	1.66	2.04	2.01	2.04
Manchester Utd	1.61	0.90	1.80	1.83	1.79	1.47	1.82	1.32	1.88	1.55
Newcastle Utd	1.51	1.88	1.21	1.89	1.48	1.30	1.80	1.80	1.45	2.06
Nott'ham Forest	0.79	1.11	1.31	1.06	1.34	1.07	1.13	0.94	1.29	1.07
Sunderland	0.95	0.93	1.23	0.47	0.77	0.93	0.80	0.77	1.00	0.68
Tottenham	1.56	1.36	1.14	1.04	1.15	0.78	1.03	1.29	0.86	1.29
West Ham	1.03	1.42	1.00	1.33	1.25	1.31	0.83	1.01	1.11	1.06
Wolves	1.02	0.82	1.19	1.12	0.93	0.93	1.18	0.93	0.97	0.69

Clean sheet probabilities

Team	GW22	GW23	GW24	GW25	GW26	GW27	GW28	GW29	GW30	GW31
Arsenal	45%	41%	38%	63%	34%	46%	38%	36%	55%	50%
Aston Villa	36%	15%	22%	16%	24%	26%	31%	20%	15%	35%
Bournemouth	17%	19%	30%	26%	28%	27%	45%	22%	35%	21%
Brentford	13%	33%	19%	15%	21%	24%	35%	16%	38%	19%
Brighton	22%	25%	35%	22%	19%	15%	32%	20%	37%	18%
Burnley	8%	26%	29%	27%	10%	8%	15%	20%	16%	18%
Chelsea	24%	18%	37%	33%	28%	45%	16%	21%	23%	30%
Crystal Palace	39%	21%	27%	18%	44%	40%	16%	28%	27%	13%
Everton	21%	27%	19%	27%	24%	23%	17%	45%	16%	21%
Fulham	20%	26%	17%	37%	13%	39%	36%	37%	28%	45%
Leeds United	34%	29%	22%	35%	14%	21%	19%	46%	17%	23%
Liverpool	52%	24%	30%	26%	46%	34%	43%	39%	43%	25%
Manchester City	20%	44%	32%	18%	39%	27%	24%	39%	33%	28%
Manchester Utd	19%	16%	34%	35%	29%	30%	24%	17%	28%	18%
Newcastle Utd	36%	32%	17%	27%	32%	16%	41%	27%	18%	50%
Nott'ham Forest	22%	17%	24%	20%	39%	20%	18%	13%	34%	28%
Sunderland	20%	24%	40%	12%	16%	30%	14%	16%	21%	13%
Tottenham	36%	37%	19%	16%	23%	22%	27%	24%	14%	34%
West Ham	21%	39%	10%	30%	17%	18%	9%	20%	13%	15%
Wolves	22%	12%	23%	20%	26%	16%	27%	19%	16%	21%

Team strength

Team	Attack	Defence	Goal difference
Arsenal	1.35	0.68	0.67
Liverpool	1.42	0.92	0.50
Manchester City	1.48	0.99	0.48
Newcastle Utd	1.31	1.00	0.31
Chelsea	1.40	1.11	0.30
Manchester Utd	1.32	1.12	0.20
Crystal Palace	1.27	1.12	0.15
Brentford	1.29	1.17	0.12
Bournemouth	1.27	1.18	0.09
Leeds United	1.16	1.12	0.04
Brighton	1.23	1.19	0.03
Aston Villa	1.14	1.16	-0.02
Fulham	0.96	1.11	-0.15
Nott'ham Forest	0.95	1.13	-0.18
Tottenham	0.93	1.13	-0.20
Everton	0.89	1.11	-0.23
Wolves	0.83	1.15	-0.33
West Ham	0.91	1.36	-0.45
Sunderland	0.68	1.28	-0.59
Burnley	0.72	1.46	-0.74

Predicted table

#	Team	xGD	xP
1	Arsenal	41.4	82.7
2	Manchester City	35.8	72.7
3	Aston Villa	9.8	67.1
4	Liverpool	16.8	66.7
5	Newcastle Utd	11.0	59.3
6	Chelsea	17.1	59.0
7	Manchester Utd	7.5	57.8
8	Brentford	8.1	57.4
9	Crystal Palace	1.7	53.3
10	Brighton	4.1	53.3
11	Fulham	-3.2	52.4
12	Bournemouth	-3.9	50.9
13	Everton	-7.9	48.4
14	Tottenham	-0.9	47.8
15	Leeds United	-5.9	46.9
16	Sunderland	-13.2	45.1
17	Nott'ham Forest	-17.7	41.3
18	West Ham	-31.9	30.8
19	Burnley	-35.2	26.4
20	Wolves	-33.3	25.4

Fair table

The table is a summary of win/draw/loss probabilities given the per shot xG of past games.

#	Team	MP	GD	xGD	Pts	xPts
1	Arsenal	21	26	21.10	49	43.34
2	Manchester City	21	26	16.60	43	39.76
3	Manchester Utd	21	4	11.30	32	35.65
4	Liverpool	21	4	8.00	35	34.64
5	Newcastle Utd	21	5	7.90	32	34.32
6	Chelsea	21	10	8.50	31	33.07
7	Crystal Palace	21	-1	6.00	28	32.39
8	Brentford	21	7	5.60	33	32.08
9	Brighton	21	3	2.50	29	30.69
10	Bournemouth	21	-6	0.60	26	30.56
11	Leeds United	21	-8	-1.00	22	30.35
12	Nott'ham Forest	21	-13	-5.00	21	25.33
13	Tottenham	21	3	-6.60	27	25.28
14	Aston Villa	21	9	-5.00	43	25.14
15	Fulham	21	0	-5.60	31	24.69
16	Everton	21	-2	-6.50	29	24.53
17	Wolves	21	-26	-8.70	7	23.93
18	West Ham	21	-21	-14.30	14	20.56
19	Sunderland	21	-1	-12.20	30	19.78
20	Burnley	21	-19	-23.20	13	14.04