Premier League predictions

Future goals

Team	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15
Arsenal	1.79	1.09	1.81	1.36	2.80	2.12	1.64	1.50	1.85	1.84
Aston Villa	1.42	1.65	1.28	1.44	1.09	1.46	1.40	1.40	1.47	1.39
Bournemouth	1.43	1.79	1.33	1.71	1.72	1.27	1.46	1.72	2.68	0.82
Brentford	1.60	1.66	2.32	1.34	1.49	1.82	1.41	1.05	1.65	1.54
Brighton	1.58	1.94	1.39	1.39	1.88	2.36	2.64	1.55	1.12	1.85
Chelsea	1.83	1.48	2.24	1.69	1.53	1.78	1.09	1.88	1.64	1.34
Coventry City	1.96	1.40	1.41	1.43	1.13	1.43	1.12	1.67	1.06	1.47
Crystal Palace	1.20	1.33	2.33	1.67	1.49	1.62	2.53	1.35	1.44	1.53
Everton	1.74	1.38	0.65	1.60	1.65	1.14	1.25	1.21	1.41	1.12
Fulham	1.49	2.31	1.48	1.32	2.13	1.12	1.52	1.53	1.22	1.51
Hull City	0.97	0.82	0.98	1.18	0.46	0.96	0.83	0.71	0.81	1.20
Ipswich Town	1.41	1.03	1.01	1.75	1.40	1.41	1.47	1.36	1.12	1.96
Leeds United	0.77	1.52	1.38	1.35	2.01	1.34	1.95	1.21	1.96	1.21
Liverpool	1.65	1.51	1.80	1.05	1.56	1.71	1.49	1.88	1.50	1.79
Manchester City	1.57	2.54	1.85	2.08	1.27	2.15	0.99	2.07	1.74	2.11
Manchester Utd	2.30	1.50	1.88	1.53	1.99	1.39	1.87	2.17	2.23	1.59
Newcastle	0.99	1.07	0.86	0.99	0.84	0.57	0.81	0.94	1.03	0.99
Nottingham	1.18	0.79	1.37	1.14	1.25	1.15	1.38	1.75	1.36	1.17
Sunderland	1.36	1.14	1.35	1.36	1.38	1.21	1.70	1.03	1.60	1.01
Tottenham	0.79	1.24	0.85	1.07	0.83	1.25	0.88	1.06	0.59	1.31

Clean sheet probabilities

Team	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15
Arsenal	46%	45%	52%	35%	63%	56%	37%	34%	55%	44%
Aston Villa	20%	34%	15%	26%	13%	29%	22%	29%	23%	22%
Bournemouth	16%	31%	15%	25%	24%	31%	21%	21%	44%	15%
Brentford	24%	22%	37%	31%	15%	32%	15%	22%	17%	22%
Brighton	25%	26%	16%	12%	22%	38%	44%	17%	25%	32%
Chelsea	23%	25%	42%	21%	25%	26%	25%	25%	22%	12%
Coventry City	37%	29%	22%	25%	19%	19%	14%	25%	10%	24%
Crystal Palace	30%	14%	42%	34%	21%	23%	43%	15%	23%	20%
Everton	38%	22%	16%	36%	32%	16%	22%	24%	29%	15%
Fulham	24%	44%	24%	23%	43%	11%	23%	34%	24%	21%
Hull City	17%	9%	9%	17%	6%	9%	7%	17%	6%	27%
Ipswich Town	22%	7%	25%	30%	17%	28%	24%	18%	14%	36%
Leeds United	16%	22%	25%	18%	43%	16%	32%	12%	32%	16%
Liverpool	20%	19%	24%	25%	22%	24%	28%	35%	19%	29%
Manchester City	19%	35%	27%	25%	28%	32%	19%	29%	19%	26%
Manchester Utd	45%	21%	26%	18%	33%	18%	24%	39%	34%	21%
Newcastle	14%	19%	9%	20%	11%	12%	7%	11%	20%	14%
Nottingham	30%	33%	36%	26%	28%	28%	33%	49%	32%	36%
Sunderland	20%	16%	25%	24%	21%	23%	41%	15%	35%	31%
Tottenham	9%	24%	10%	18%	13%	24%	18%	21%	15%	29%

Team strength

Team	Attack	Defence	Goal difference
Arsenal	1.35	0.63	0.72
Manchester City	1.57	1.00	0.57
Liverpool	1.36	1.00	0.35
Manchester Utd	1.38	1.03	0.35
Brighton	1.39	1.09	0.29
Brentford	1.36	1.11	0.25
Chelsea	1.34	1.11	0.24
Nottingham	1.03	0.81	0.22
Bournemouth	1.29	1.12	0.17
Leeds United	1.21	1.09	0.12
Crystal Palace	1.22	1.15	0.07
Fulham	1.12	1.13	-0.01
Everton	1.02	1.10	-0.08
Sunderland	1.02	1.14	-0.12
Aston Villa	1.05	1.18	-0.13
Coventry City	1.03	1.32	-0.30
Ipswich Town	1.03	1.34	-0.31
Tottenham	0.77	1.37	-0.60
Newcastle	0.74	1.57	-0.82
Hull City	0.72	1.71	-0.98

Predicted table

#	Team	xGD	xPts
1	Arsenal	36.12	78.63
2	Manchester City	33.14	75.57
3	Brighton	24.76	64.00
4	Liverpool	18.22	63.95
5	Brentford	16.49	60.98
6	Manchester Utd	14.75	59.66
7	Chelsea	9.05	59.54
8	Leeds United	9.14	57.81
9	Nottingham	7.86	56.19
10	Bournemouth	5.79	53.32
11	Crystal Palace	-1.19	51.97
12	Everton	-1.01	51.72
13	Fulham	-2.87	47.57
14	Sunderland	-7.42	47.19
15	Aston Villa	-10.88	45.79
16	Ipswich Town	-16.66	43.92
17	Coventry City	-21.03	41.17
18	Newcastle	-38.13	31.21
19	Tottenham	-33.86	30.04
20	Hull City	-42.25	28.80

Fair table

The table is a summary of win/draw/loss probabilities given the per shot xG of past games.

#	Team	MP	GD	xGD	Pts	xPts
1	Arsenal	5	4	4.43	12	10.33
2	Manchester City	5	8	3.23	15	9.28
3	Brentford	5	6	3.89	9	8.58
4	Liverpool	5	3	2.24	9	8.36
5	Nottingham	5	-1	2.16	5	8.32
6	Brighton	5	11	2.61	10	7.97
7	Sunderland	5	-4	1.15	4	7.67
8	Everton	5	3	0.38	9	7.18
9	Manchester Utd	5	0	3.40	5	7.02
10	Ipswich Town	5	-4	-1.61	6	6.96
11	Bournemouth	5	-2	-0.23	3	6.83
12	Leeds United	5	4	1.34	9	6.16
13	Tottenham	5	-6	-2.90	2	5.81
14	Chelsea	5	-2	-1.78	7	5.79
15	Hull City	5	2	-2.04	8	5.20
16	Aston Villa	5	-5	-4.28	4	4.82
17	Coventry City	5	-9	-3.71	3	4.50
18	Fulham	5	-3	-1.29	2	4.24
19	Newcastle	5	0	-3.75	8	4.17
20	Crystal Palace	5	-5	-3.23	4	3.67