Premier League predictions

Future goals

Team	GW1	GW2	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10
Arsenal	2.48	1.50	1.75	1.55	1.38	1.87	1.57	1.84	1.36	3.44
Aston Villa	1.14	0.89	2.31	1.60	1.23	1.58	1.23	1.32	1.49	1.15
Bournemouth	1.31	1.86	1.50	1.93	1.69	1.43	1.92	1.40	1.89	1.95
Brentford	1.76	1.47	1.84	1.50	1.69	1.45	1.62	2.70	1.87	1.33
Brighton	1.70	1.30	1.72	1.85	0.99	1.42	1.66	1.25	1.19	1.75
Chelsea	1.50	1.74	0.90	3.53	1.59	1.96	1.54	1.87	1.75	1.59
Coventry City	0.62	2.44	0.92	1.20	1.11	1.30	1.05	1.28	1.35	1.06
Crystal Palace	1.40	1.50	1.37	2.23	1.43	1.81	1.29	1.72	1.39	1.57
Everton	1.34	1.15	1.26	1.10	1.76	2.07	1.29	0.65	1.10	1.84
Fulham	1.38	1.22	1.43	1.07	1.34	1.52	2.71	1.59	1.19	1.44
Hull City	0.81	0.97	0.88	0.68	0.71	0.88	0.70	0.91	1.14	0.42
Ipswich Town	1.26	0.91	1.11	0.97	0.99	1.19	0.86	1.28	1.85	1.26
Leeds United	1.37	1.67	1.20	1.60	1.58	0.77	1.49	1.35	1.36	1.59
Liverpool	1.51	1.96	1.96	1.83	1.58	1.63	1.58	1.72	1.09	1.50
Manchester City	2.19	1.69	2.85	1.59	2.18	1.56	2.73	1.73	1.94	1.80
Manchester Utd	2.79	2.37	1.49	1.59	1.46	1.81	1.52	1.91	1.41	1.84
Newcastle	1.61	1.42	1.84	1.46	3.30	1.94	1.78	1.42	1.77	1.41
Nottingham	1.38	1.01	1.35	1.11	1.84	1.09	0.80	1.43	1.15	1.18
Sunderland	1.19	1.11	0.96	0.66	0.80	1.04	0.96	1.15	1.24	1.07
Tottenham	1.08	1.27	1.09	1.28	1.28	0.96	1.72	0.98	1.25	1.05

Clean sheet probabilities

Team	GW1	GW2	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10
Arsenal	53%	41%	40%	51%	37%	46%	45%	52%	33%	65%
Aston Villa	18%	22%	41%	32%	27%	23%	16%	17%	30%	15%
Bournemouth	11%	31%	15%	22%	20%	14%	38%	14%	25%	28%
Brentford	34%	18%	38%	14%	20%	20%	20%	40%	31%	17%
Brighton	31%	17%	29%	30%	25%	35%	27%	17%	14%	26%
Chelsea	25%	27%	17%	50%	18%	23%	27%	37%	24%	34%
Coventry City	8%	38%	5%	15%	15%	14%	17%	20%	28%	15%
Crystal Palace	26%	18%	23%	37%	20%	33%	18%	24%	28%	22%
Everton	24%	15%	22%	27%	37%	41%	21%	15%	17%	34%
Fulham	22%	33%	25%	16%	23%	30%	49%	27%	22%	24%
Hull City	6%	8%	9%	2%	3%	12%	6%	6%	15%	3%
Ipswich Town	30%	9%	14%	10%	17%	21%	6%	23%	32%	14%
Leeds United	25%	22%	17%	23%	24%	15%	21%	31%	15%	34%
Liverpool	20%	36%	33%	34%	18%	20%	19%	28%	25%	20%
Manchester City	26%	22%	39%	20%	44%	19%	42%	26%	30%	30%
Manchester Utd	44%	40%	28%	20%	26%	38%	22%	24%	17%	31%
Newcastle	22%	28%	22%	20%	49%	27%	29%	17%	33%	23%
Nottingham	25%	14%	33%	20%	32%	16%	20%	27%	15%	16%
Sunderland	28%	29%	15%	21%	11%	24%	14%	25%	25%	20%
Tottenham	17%	24%	26%	33%	29%	16%	34%	15%	24%	20%

Team strength

Team	Attack	Defence	Goal difference
Arsenal	1.35	0.65	0.70
Manchester City	1.55	0.96	0.58
Liverpool	1.37	1.01	0.36
Chelsea	1.39	1.05	0.33
Manchester Utd	1.34	1.03	0.32
Brighton	1.24	1.02	0.22
Bournemouth	1.36	1.15	0.21
Newcastle	1.30	1.10	0.19
Crystal Palace	1.26	1.09	0.17
Brentford	1.30	1.15	0.15
Leeds United	1.18	1.13	0.05
Aston Villa	1.12	1.11	0.00
Fulham	1.06	1.09	-0.02
Everton	1.00	1.11	-0.11
Tottenham	0.93	1.10	-0.16
Nottingham	1.00	1.17	-0.17
Sunderland	0.83	1.15	-0.32
Coventry City	0.96	1.50	-0.54
Ipswich Town	0.89	1.43	-0.54
Hull City	0.65	2.07	-1.43

Predicted table

#	Team	xGD	xPts
1	Arsenal	36.02	75.79
2	Manchester City	30.01	70.22
3	Liverpool	18.60	63.70
4	Chelsea	17.12	62.72
5	Manchester Utd	16.35	62.34
6	Brighton	11.09	59.18
7	Bournemouth	10.78	58.85
8	Newcastle	9.88	58.36
9	Crystal Palace	8.84	57.74
10	Brentford	7.84	57.11
11	Leeds United	2.63	53.89
12	Aston Villa	0.07	52.23
13	Fulham	-1.08	51.41
14	Everton	-5.77	48.34
15	Nottingham	-8.62	46.65
16	Tottenham	-8.42	46.45
17	Sunderland	-16.28	41.21
18	Coventry City	-27.78	36.28
19	Ipswich Town	-27.82	35.70
20	Hull City	-73.46	16.10

Fair table

The table is a summary of win/draw/loss probabilities given the per shot xG of past games.

#	Team	MP	GD	xGD	Pts	xPts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
2	Hull City	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
3	Ipswich Town	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
4	Nottingham	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
5	Everton	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
6	Brentford	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
7	Manchester City	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
8	Brighton	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
9	Newcastle	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
10	Fulham	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
11	Crystal Palace	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
12	Liverpool	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
13	Coventry City	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
14	Bournemouth	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
15	Tottenham	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
16	Chelsea	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
17	Sunderland	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
18	Leeds United	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
19	Manchester Utd	0	0	0.00	0	0.00
20	Aston Villa	0	0	0.00	0	0.00